What the March Spike Actually Cost Carriers.

Most carriers won’t know the full damage until Q2 closes. This report quantifies it.

Key Findings

What the August 2026 Diesel Surge Actually Cost Carriers.

Most carriers won't know the full damage until Q4 resets. This report quantifies it now.

What the Report Covers

  • Finding 1: $5.65/gal — Peak retail diesel, late August 2026. Up 52.4% year-over-year.
  • Finding 2: $0.338 in one week — The sharpest single-week diesel move since the March 9 spike (week of July 20).
  • Finding 3: $53.6k — What a 55-truck Texas carrier absorbed unrecovered over August under a standard monthly surcharge reset.
  • Finding 4: Three scenarios — Weekly, monthly, and quarterly reset structures. Three very different August outcomes, and a warning for whichever one resets next in Q4.

Inside the Report

The report models a real carrier profile, Lone Star Freight, 55 trucks, dry van, Texas for-hire, and works through exactly what June through August cost them under three common surcharge configurations. The twist this cycle: the carriers hit hardest weren't on quarterly resets, they were on monthly ones, locked to July's still-low average while diesel climbed past even April's peak. The numbers don't appear on any invoice. They show up as compressed margin when the month closes.

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